Posted by: John Elliott | March 11, 2017

Modi sets 2022 target for a ‘New India’ after his UP landslide victory

BJP grabs Goa from Congress and is set to do the same in Manipur

Arun Jaitley takes additional charge of Defence ministry

State results a personal blow for Rahul Gandhi and setback for AAP

Narendra Modi has established himself as India’s only credible national political leader and has set 2022 as the target year for developing a strong India. He has achieved an astonishing landslide victory in the key state of Uttar Pradesh, where the Bharatiya Janata Party  has won 312 out of 403 seats, compared with a figure of around 190 that was the highest generally expected.

The result was announced on March 11 when counting took place in five states’ assembly elections. The BJP is now set to form the governments in four of them, having also won in Uttarakhand, and staged controversial coups that eased the Congress Party out of a leadership position in both Goa and Manipur.

The UP vote was primarily for Modi, not for local candidates, even though he will not be running the state. Having dominated the campaign in presidential style and achieved the victory, he will hand that task to a chief minister, who is yet to be named. The chief minister’s tough task, working in the shadow of Modi and his main henchman, Amit Shah, the hardline Hindu-nationalist BJP president who ran the campaign, will be to replace past UP governments’ corrupt and ineffective rule with development-oriented policies and  strong law and order.

At a victory rally (below) in New Delhi on March 12, Modi said: “My target is 2022, not 2019. 2022 will mark 75 years of India’s Independence”.

That means he is looking beyond the next general election in 2019 to the end of the five-year term of this weekend’s state assembly results.  Talking about a “New India”, he said: “If everyone bears the mood of development, then all our dreams and progress would be achieved. This is the environment we need to create.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses supporters

The UP result, which reflects voting trends in the BJP’s general election landslide in 2014,  is even more remarkable because the party has not done well in the state for 25 years. In 2012, it won only 48 seats , whereas its total this time is 325 including its allies.

The BJP has now recovered from embarrassing defeats in Delhi and Bihar state polls after the 2014 general election. It rules in states covering more than 60% of the population, and it is clear that Modi has established  a dominant leadership position nationally with no rivals to challenge him. Barring unforeseen events, he can look forward to the second term as prime minister that he craves after the next general election in 2019 – providing he is perceived to be delivering in the next two years.

The BJP’s large number of UP (and other) assembly seats will help Modi choose the country’s next president, who will take office in July. It will also help gradually to strengthen the party’s clout over the next year or so in indirect elections  to the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of parliament, where it has been in a minority. That will eventually ease the passage of legislation, which has been blocked by the Congress Party.

The result was devastating for Rahul Gandhi, dynastic heir apparent to the leadership of the Congress Party which has managed only seven seats in UP (down from 28 last time) while its partner, the state-level Samajwadi Party, has 47.

Rahul Gandhi should step down

If ever there was a time for Gandhi , 46, to back off from politics it is now because he has proved himself to be a lightweight with no leadership potential and no positive political or economic message. His lack of focus and leadership has allowed Goa and Manipur to go to the BJP.

Congress has even had the humiliation of the BJP winning six out of ten assembly seats in the Gandhi family’s traditional political base – the UP districts of Amethi and Rae Bareli, where Rahul and Sonia Gandhi are MPs.

Rahul’s mother and the party president, Sonia Gandhi, is not well and is reported to be abroad for a health check-up (presumably at a New York clinic, which she has visited before). His sister Priyanka unexpectedly did little campaigning – two weeks ago she was spotted by a friend lunching with Sonia in the Italian Embassy’s cultural centre café in Delhi. Unless Priyanka steps in, the dynasty will decline and drag the party with it – and it may now be too late for her to mount a rescue.

bjp-celebrations-pti_650x400_71489234180

BJP supporters celebrating the UP victory with colour sprays that are a feature of the Holi festival, celebrated this year on March 13

Congress won in Punjab with 77 assembly seats out of 117, but that is widely seen as primarily a personal vote for Captain Amarinder Singh, a veteran state-level leader who comes from an old regional royal family and was 75 on March 11. He will now become chief minister for the fourth – and, he has said, final – time.

The results are a serious setback for the Aam Aadmi Party, led by Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi’s chief minister, who wanted to spread the party’s role to other states. The party had hoped to be a close challenger of Congress in Punjab, where Kejriwal led the campaign, but came a distant second with only 22 seats. It did however beat an alliance between the state-level Akali Dal party (which was in power) and the BJP that together have 18 seats. It also contested in Goa, where it failed to win any seats.

The UP result is a major defeat for Akhilesh Yadav, the 43-year old out-going chief minister who recently seized the Samajwadi Party leadership from his veteran politician father, Mulayam Singh Yadav. Akhilesh linked up with Congress, primarily to woo the state’s large Muslim vote, but that partnership failed.

In other results, BJP won in Uttarakhand, adjacent to UP, with 57 of the 70 seats, ousting a Congress government and pushing the Congress seats down to 11.

BJP coups in Goa and Manipur

In Goa, Congress and an ally won the most assembly seats – 18 out of 40, beating the BJP which has been in power and only won 14 seats with allies. But the BJP has recruited a small regional party to form a coalition that will be headed by Manohar Parrikar as chief minister. Parrikar held the job earlier and has been India’s defence minister since late in 2014. Arun Jaitley, the finance minister, has been given additional charge of defence, a double-post he held for a few months in 2014.

The BJP also expects to form the government in the north-eastern state of Manipur, even though Congress led the polls with 28 out of 60 seats compared with the BJP’s 21. The BJP tally was good for the party, which has not previously had a presence in the state. It gathered support from other parties and individual assembly members, and has chosen a local politician to be chief minister.

That will leave Congress to form the government only in Punjab, a success that pales into virtual insignificance compared with the defeat in UP, where Rahul Gandhi personally led his party’s campaign with Akhilesh Yadav.

Modi’s charisma

Watching Modi in Ramnagar on the banks of the Ganges near Varanasi, when he went there on March 6, I was struck by the charisma of authority and leadership that he projected. He absorbed the “Modi Modi” screams and chants from the crowds and reflected a sense of standing and authority.

Contrast that with the floppy hand waves that Gandhi gives to crowds that have no more meaning that the way that friends say goodbye to each other. Gandhi also has no message of hope, whereas Modi inspires a widespread respect for trying to tackle the country’s immense problems of corruption, lack of sound governance, and inadequate achievement.

Significantly, the BJP and its allies won all the seats in Varanasi, where Modi has been the MP since 2014. There has been considerable resentment about a lack of progress there in the past three years, and this prompted Modi to be based in the constituency for the final three days of campaigning  – an investment that has clearly paid off.

It is not just in Varanasi that Modi is failing to do all the things that voters, especially the poor, think he is and should be doing. The recent bank note ban of demonetisation is wrongly seen, even by people who have suffered, as a worthwhile attack on the rich and corrupt.

Like several of other attention-catching schemes that Modi has launched, demonetisation has yet to show any significant positive impact, apart from some increased use of electronic and digital banking,. Schemes such as Make in India and Start-up India have had little real effect on manufacturing investment and new businesses, while the Swachh Bharat cleanliness and sanitation project is under-performing.

The big picture

Some 60% of the 140m electorate in UP (which sends 80 MPs to parliament) turned out to vote, about 40% of whom voted for the BJP. The BJP had done careful caste-based calculations in its choice of candidates and local election strategies, but the result confounded experts who had minutely dissected the views of the state’s various castes and of minorities, notably Muslims. As a television reporter said, “it was a big picture result – people who relied on detailed analysis lost the plot” – the big picture being that Modi has captured the minds of voters desperate for change, especially the poor, straddling castes and classes.

There was relatively little of the communal divide that Modi and Amit Shah have generated in the past. There were some anti-Muslim issues but generally Shah, who should take the credit for organising the BJP’s election campaign, projected a development message and curbed most of his own and his more extreme activists’ sentiments.

Modi’s challenge now is to accelerate his government’s performance nationally and deliver the improvements that voters expect to see in their lives. His next test is an assembly election later this year in his home state of Gujarat, which the BJP should win easily, and then other key states next year.

After that, the 2019 general election is his, to win.


Originally posted on March 11 with the headline Modi landslide win in Uttar Pradesh projects him for general election victory in 2019″, this article was updated and reposted on March 12 and was further updated on March 13



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Responses

  1. Dear John
    i have been reading your blog Ab Initio, and this is the best by far. Absolutely spot on, and now follow the Gandhi Family. I will not be surprised if Sonia Gandhi “for medical reasons” cannot return to India, and maybe Son and Daughter will be leaving India to look after their Mother. This will surely happen and the “Spineless” Congress family will be left to face the consequences, which they richly deserve.
    Regards, Edward Oakley

  2. John Two Messages Inclusuve growth by 2022 & sympathy for middle class, and
    I am PM for all, the entire 125 Crore. and not for the party.

    These are very powerful messages. Should he deliver on those, there is no stopping him. Regards BK SyngalsNabha

  3. This is an astonishing result. It reinforces the global backlash against political/intellectual elites. Elections now turn on the hope for change and Modi is only the national Indian politician to provide that – anti-incumbency is back with a bang on these elections. Results on the ground come a distant second. Maybe Modi’s most astonishing achievement in these elections is his capture of Muslim-dominated constituencies, beginning to demonstrate his success in becoming everyman’s candidate, while retaining the BJP’s traditional voter base.
    The only hope which Congress have inspired is the hope that the Gandhis will now finally realise what the Party needs! We have hoped so many times before….

  4. Additionally, Economy, Development Will replace Caste and Religion as happened in the nineteenth century Europe and elsewhere. This politics as family fiefdoms has to go.

  5. John A message very clear is the end of Dynasties, Nepotism, Caste and Religion based politics. The second message is that alliances are like one night stands to grab power, sans responsibilities. Third, maintain your identity and fight. Fourth, public has seen through that politics is family enterprise as has been in UP, Punjab, TN etc. Finally, Congress has lost the plot must dump the G factor. This is not a glue but gap. Best regards BK


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