Sunak gambles calling UK general election months earlier than expected

Takes unprepared MPs and Ministers by surprise as inflation falls

Big Labour victory expected in polls on July 4th

The days of Britain having a prime minister of Indian origin are almost over, for several years at least. Rishi Sunak declared yesterday that there will be a general election on July 4, several months earlier than had been expected. There is little prospect of his Conservative Party being re-elected. 

Indeed, the chances of Sunak winning are no more likely than Narendra Modi doing seriously badly in India’s current election. Sunak may not lose as disastrously as most pundits are forecasting with his party being virtually wiped out, and Modi may not win as overwhelmingly as seemed likely, but the results are as certain as can be, and Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, can expect to become prime minister on July 5.

Sunak stood in pouring rain yesterday evening in Downing Street to announce that he was calling the election. His speech was heavily focussed on the economy and security at “this most uncertain of times”. The visual image was spoiled by Sunak being drenched in the rain and the audio by sounds of the Labour Party-favoured song “Things Can Only Get Better” being boomed out at the end of the street.

It has for some months seemed to be the time for Sunak and his government to pack up and go. He was elected by Conservative MPs to be their leader, and thus the prime minister, in October 2022. The task was to bring some sanity and responsibility to Downing Street after two disastrous prime ministers, the blatantly dishonest rule-breaking Boris Johnson who led the UK into a much-regretted Brexit, and the 45 days of disastrous economic experiments from Liz Truss.

Sunak inherited the effects of the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He had early successes, including a long-delayed Brexit trade protocol for Northern Ireland in March last year. He also maintained Britain’s prominent role supporting Ukraine.  

But his personal popularity has slumped in recent months, and he has cut a lonely figure, lacking political charisma. He has an earnest energetic style that focusses on details rather than pitching a positive overall image that could have public appeal. Opponents on the right wing of his party were ready to mount a coup to oust him at the beginning of this month when the Conservatives did badly in local and regional elections, but he just survived.

The election announcement was totally unexpected yesterday. Most ministers and all MPs were assuming they would continue with their jobs for several more months . Rumours that might not happen started circulating among MPs and some journalists around midday when news spread that the foreign secretary, Lord (David) Cameron, was cutting short a trip to Albania. The defence minister Grant Shapps delayed a foreign trip, and other ministers readied for a cabinet meeting in the afternoon.

It appears that Sunak decided to go now rather than in the autumn because the economy is looking more buoyant than it has for some time, and there is little prospect of the government being able to afford popularity- boosting tax cuts in the autumn.

.It was announced yesterday morning that inflation dropped during April from 3.2% to 2.3%, the lowest since 2021 (with an 11% high in 2022), though food and other key prices remain high. Economic growth is also picking up – faster than in Germany and France, though it is still below 1%. 

Sunak must have reckoned that this is the best that it is likely to get because he can claim to have fulfilled two of five pledges he rashly made in January last year. The three he has failed on are curbing the flow of immigrant boats crossing the English Channel from France and despatching some to Rwanda, reducing National Health Service waiting lists and reducing national debit.

Popularity opinion polls show the Conservatives have been dropping sharply and are now down to 23%, way below Labour at 45%. Ominously for Sunak, the right-wing Reform Party (previously the Brexit Party) is on 11% with the Liberal-Democrats at 9%. Reform’s candidates will eat into the Conservative vote, strengthening Labour’s likely majority.

Labour’s problem however is that Starmer, who was awarded his knighthood after being the director of public prosecutions some years ago, does not have a strong public following. There is little evidence that voters see him as the essential prime minister that the UK needs. His competence is not in doubt, though he has not been tested in a ministerial post.

The Economist has a complex model with a range of options for the result centred on 381 seats for Labour (326 is needed for a majority) with the Conservatives on 192, the Liberal-Democrats on 22, the Scottish National Party on 27, and the right-wing Reform Party maybe 19. 

Commentary in the British newspapers yesterday evening was mostly critical of the decision to have the election now rather than towards the end of the year – the deadline is at the end of next January.

The FT headlined “A last gamble for a prime minister who has run out of road”, saying “with nothing on the horizon likely to dramatically improve, Sunak has decided to seize the economic moment”. The Economistsaid said “The prime minister’s decision makes little sense but it is good news all the same”, and The Times offered “Rishi Sunak surely cannot believe the Tories can win an election”. 

The Telegraph demonstrated its true-blue sympathies with a columnist writiing: “There are just 1,000 hours to save Britain. Rishi Sunak must expose Labour’s socialist agenda and give conservatives clear new reasons to back him.”

Crisis list

Whoever wins, there are numerous crises to be faced. A list has been drawn up by Sue Gray, a former top civil servant who is now Starmer’s chief of staff. Dubbed by a Labour MP as “Sue’s shit list”, it includes the potential financial collapse of the major Thames Water private sector utility, public sector pay negotiations, crisis-level overcrowding in prisons, universities finances “going under”, NHS funding shortfall, and bankrupt local councils.

The next government will also have to tackle how the public sector handles major crises, frequently burying them to protect those involved instead of finding solutions. There are two current examples in the news this week. One is an official report into the deaths of an astonishing total of 30,000 people as a result of contaminated blood transfusions given by the NHS in the 1970s and 1980s after childbirth, surgery, or major trauma. Other countries dealt with this crisis decades ago, but it has taken till now for an official report to be published. The other case involves the (privatised) Post Office, where hundreds of people running small post offices were wrongly prosecuted and convicted of embezzlement between 1999 and 2015 following cash losses that were being caused by a faulty Fujitsu computer system.

Sunak, whose parents moved to the UK from East Africa, has taken a huge gamble by going for the election now instead of waiting till the autumn or the end of the year, He probably hopes to minimise the size of the defeat, rather than actually expecting to win what would be a fifth consecutive victory for the Conservatives.

But he has never shown much skill at managing politics, so critics in his party and others are waiting to see whether this is his final big misjudgement because, if the Conservatives do seriously badly, he will be blamed for acting too hastily a few hours after the favourable inflation figures.